MUMBAI | NEW DELHI: Rajesh Mehta's cellphone has not stopped ringing in recent days. The Bangalorebased Mehta runs one of India's largest jewellery export companies but the calls have nothing to do with precious metals or their value which has been as volatile as crude oil in recent months. Rather, Mehta has been inundated with enquiries from cash-strapped builders about financing their incomplete projects as banks turn off the spigot and equity markets remain hostile.
Mehta's main business is trade in gems and jewellery. It may not have taken a backseat but he sure is spending more time closeted with builders. In the last few years, Indian builders' desperate search for financing has led them to the unlikeliest of sources including Mehta.
Such private money is coming at exorbitant rates of even 36-40 per cent a year but that has not turned off anybody. "They (builders) are approaching us for loans, but we are being little more selective this time as we want our interest as well as loans serviced regularly," Mehta says.
Since 2004, Indian real estate companies enjoyed a dream run that lasted till about 2008, until financial crisis following collapse of Lehman Brothers. Since then, the property market has not seen similar kind of sales, but prices have not come off.
Abooming stock market, rising demand and easy access to credit and equity meant companies could keep launching projects and raise money from a variety of sources, including the market. Consumers complained about soaring prices but demand was strong especially in expensive pockets of Mumbai and NCR. Funding was not cheap but available and banks were still lending.
All that stopped about a year and a half ago, ironically around the time when the stock market boom began after the Ben Bernanke-inspired 'taper tantrum' ended in September and Narendra Modi assumed charge of the BJP's election campaign as their prime ministerial candidate. Banks were not healthy and their NPAs were rising but the RBI under Raghuram Rajan started becoming stricter forcing banks to provide for NPAs and go after defaulting promoters. Promoters dont have a divine right to continue," Rajan thundered in his first press conference after taking charge putting both banks and promoters on watch.
The real estate cycle was also turning after years of robust or even steady growth. Purchases slackened especially in Mumbai and NCR as a sliding economy and sky high prices put off buyers. Inventory or unsold stock with builders started piling up and as banks reduced funding to manage NPA levels, many builders started facing a crisis-like situation. The stock market boom did not help them forcing builders to go after private sources like Mehta or NBFCs.
"Deficit between cash inflow comprising of collections through new launches and sale of non-core assets, and outflow including debt payment, interest servicing and construction expenditures is high. This deficit has only been widening in the last three years," said Sudip Sural, senior director, CRISIL Ratings. He should know. Nearly two years ago, developers including Hubtown, Century Real Estate, Housing Development & Infrastructure (HDIL), Orbit Corp and Unitech were either downgraded by credit rating agencies or sent possession notices following reports of their defaults on borrowings. Debt in the real estate sector shows not sign of coming down. The top 15 listed realty developers owed Rs 54,567 crore at the end of March this year compared with Rs 50,400 crore in March 2013.
Stock market doesn't love real estate firms anymore. Shares of listed realty companies, especially those with exposure to Mumbai and NCR have underperformed the Sensex and Nifty. Aggressive attempts by players such as DLF to cut debt by selling assets has not improved their standing with investors.
"A substantial interest rate cut is needed to see revival in the current property market scene," says Lalit Kumar Jain, managing director of Pune-based Kumar Urban Development. RBI has cut rates thrice this year and home loan rates have begun reducing a bit. But that is yet to impact the property market. The million dollar question, according to realty companies, is whether more cuts will substantially revive property market in the coming years.
But some experts believe that this is the wrong question to ask. High prices more than interest rates matter for buyers and builders are not doing themselves any favour by holding prices high especially in Mumbai and NCR. A revival in the real estate market would depend to a large extent on revival in economy but builders also need to face upto certain realities such as their desire to hold prices high despite mounting pressure on the bottomline.
There is a strange dichotomy at play. There is mounting pressure on builders. They are highly scared of defaulting as that could shut all financing doors for them but they are not responding by cutting property prices. "Builders fear any reduction in prices will lead to buyers further delaying decisions in anticipation of more correction," says Ambar Maheshwari, CEO of private equity firm Indiabulls Real Estate Fund. "A lot of refinancing taking place today to stay away from defaults."
That has led to a pile-up of unsold stock., close to 853.09 million sq ft, or about 650,000 apartments at the end of March 2015, according to property research firm Liases Foras. The worst hit are NCR and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region.
"If developers reduce property prices, intermediaries, investors or existing customers will be at a loss. Also new and existing unsold inventory will not fetch a good price," says Sural. In many ways this is a catch-22 situation. "Their cash flows will not improve until buyers are back in the market and this will not happen unless there is a meaningful reduction in prices," he adds. Developers, of course, believe price cuts will hurt them as many have bought land at exorbitant rates.
They also believe consumers will not jump at the first cut in prices and will wait for cuts, thereby increasing pressure on builders. So, they are offering discounts and freebies while borrowing from NBFCs, private financiers and private equity funds.
Recently, around 50 developers like Oberoi Realty, Godrej Properties, Tata Housing, Hiranandani Constructions, Dosti Realty, Rustomjee, Brigade Group, Omaxe, Ansal Housing & Construction, Sobha and RMZ offered up to 15 per cent 'savings' in a flash sale on 99acres.com on June 25-28. Some builders are focusing on completing projects which will then unlock cash flows that are locked in.
"We had sold many projects with schemes where a chunk of the payments were due at possession," says RK Arora, managing director of Noida-based builder Supertech. For now, to manage shortfall in projects, the company is raising funds from NBFCs against collaterals. "These are high cost funds which we are using to finish projects. These do lower our margins but the focus is on trying to complete projects," he says.
Ajay Chandra, MD of Gurgaon-based Unitech says the company is not launching projects and phases but rather concentrating on construction and delivery of existing sold projects. "We are using funds from sale of non-core lands and institutional plots in our residential developments to service debt," he says.
Another developer Indiabulls Real Estate that has seen its debt rising to Rs 5,973 crore as on March end as against Rs 2,977 crore a year ago is also working on a plan to reduce its debt cost. A spokesperson for Indiabulls Real Estate says that the rise in the company's debt level in the last one year was on account of its London property acquisition. "We have managed to get this offshore debt at 10 per cent which is lower than our average debt cost of 11.5 per cent. We are planning to lower this interest cost further through a soon to be launched Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities issue that would be at 9.25 per cent-9.5 per cent cost," the spokesperson said.
In a recent report, Fitch Ratings said it expects property developers to deleverage meaningfully by end-2016 as India's investment climate improves. According to Fitch, the process of reducing leverage had stalled in 2014 due to weak sales and slower cash collections on properties that were sold towards the end of 2014 and in early 2015, as developers introduced easy payment schemes to stoke demand.
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